No-Growth Nation
I no longer pay any attention to the headline unemployement rate, which is presently reported at 8.1 percent for U3. But it is relatively meaningless due to the statistical shenanigans that are being played with the labor force participation rate, as various commentators are now noting. For me, the more important and less easily gamed statistic is the EPR, or Employment-Population Ratio, which has remained essentially flat, between 58.5 and 58.2 percent, since October 2009. Needless to say, this is not indicative of a growing economy, since it reflects a ratio not seen in the USA since the recession of the early 1980s. One wonders how low the EPR has to fall before people begin to connect their unemployment to the 60 million population increase since 1990 - more than the entire population of the UK - most of which is the result of the post-1986 immigration wave.
Suffice it to say that the present economic depression will eventually kill the claim that immigration is good for the economy as dead as the 1970s recession killed the Keynesian claim that it was impossible to simultaneously have inflation and unemployment.
Suffice it to say that the present economic depression will eventually kill the claim that immigration is good for the economy as dead as the 1970s recession killed the Keynesian claim that it was impossible to simultaneously have inflation and unemployment.
Labels: economics, immigration
30 Comments:
Suffice it to say that the present economic depression will eventually kill the claim that immigration is good for the economy as dead as the 1970s recession killed the Keynesian claim that it was impossible to simultaneously have inflation and unemployment.
Which means that the pro-immigration lot will simply move on to claim that the economy would have improved had we legalized all of the third world immigrants. (c) 2012 all rights reserved.
This is too easy. LaRaza should have to pay me for this crap.
One wonders how low the EPR has to fall before people begin to connect their unemployment to the 60 million population increase since 1990 - more than the entire population of the UK - most of which is the result of the post-1986 immigration wave.
In addition to that increase in population from the third world comes this story about illegals cheating on their taxes by claiming non-existent children for tax exemptions. Check out this 6 minute story from Indiana on illegals getting, in some cases, $10,000 refunds from the IRS by reporting kids they either don't have, or who live in Mexico.
Your title is absolutely untrue.
Debt and government are growing like metastasized cancer.
But I've got a job! And can afford to pay Pablo to cut my lawn. And Consuelo to clean my house. Which, by the way, I have an AWESOME interest rate on. If we could just get rid of Obama, everything would be fine.
Sean Hannity said so.
The EPR (lovely graph , by the way. It looks like it was inspired by La Quedabra!) still relies on the Current Population Survey (CPS) - which necessarily underreports the total population, as well as the population of the unemployed.
The fact that the CPS is significantly redesigned after every census tells you that consistency is not the object of the survey, but progression is.
I can't imagine what this chart would really look like if it reflected reality, but you are right when you say it is better (I'd say unmeasurably better) than the unemployment "rate."
Suffice it to say that the present economic depression will eventually kill the claim that immigration is good for the economy as dead as the 1970s recession killed the Keynesian claim that it was impossible to simultaneously have inflation and unemployment.
Except that most mainstream economists cling to their belief in the Phillips Curve. I actually had one of my professors tell me that stagflation didn't disprove that part of the Keynesian theory.
God help us all...
On the same topic, Rick Santelli coins the media friendly term "Ostrich Economics"
I actually had one of my professors tell me that stagflation didn't disprove that part of the Keynesian theory.
I hope you are not paying for a course like that. Your professor is obviously incompetent and your degree will be worthless.
Suburban Republican True Believer: But I've got a job! And can afford to pay Pablo to cut my lawn. And Consuelo to clean my house. Which, by the way, I have an AWESOME interest rate on. If we could just get rid of Obama, everything would be fine. Sean Hannity said so.
El Rushbo too. RimJob of FR is almost there as well. Bachmann is already on board. We've got just the guy for ya: Willard Hussein Obmaney. He's running on a platform of socialized medicine, abortion rights, gun control, TRAP bailouts and global wars to make the Ummah safe for feminism, sodomy and the Amurikan way. He's running against the evil communist secret Muslim Barack Mittens Rombama, who is for socialized medicine, abortion rights, gun control, TRAP bailouts and global wars to make the Ummah safe for feminism, sodomy and the Amurikan way. Don't forget it's the mostest important erection EVAAAHHHH! The great undead Incitatus from Dorothy's Kansas, Bob Dull, endorses this little blue pill.
So when is it time to call a bottom on housing?
Vox,
Do you think John williams at shadowstats.com is a lot closer to reality than the BLS statistics?
Sincerely
Cheddarman
You are wrong Vox. Apparently immigrants are now bringing TB to major cities. Think of all the extra healthcare jobs created. Not to mention all the welfare workers, crime counsellers and prison guards needed for immigrants. So many jobs soon we will be at 110% employment
> So when is it time to call a bottom on housing?
Housing cycles tend to run in the 10 year range. Since this one started in 2006 or 2007, figure about 2016 or 2017. This is a complete estimate, of course, and worth what you paid for it.
El Rushbo too.
oh ya. It is all just a game to these guys and no principles are involved, except MONEY. Get involved, play the game, cut out your niche and get your take.
Hey, its just gaming a bunch of morons who don't have a clue.
@Vox
the Keynesian claim that it was impossible to simultaneously have inflation and unemployment.
Only the Neo-Keynesians made this claim. The Post-Keynesians did not.
Camps open to house illegal muslim immigrants in Greece
OT: For those of you have cloudy skies tonight (and are space geeks) during the meteor shower you can listen to them. A Ham operator in Texas has set up a listening device that monitors reflections off the Air Force Space Surveillance Radar. It is a pan signal on CW and you can listen for the distinct pings of a meteor and count them if you like.
http://spaceweatherradio.com/
Consider too the increasingly large numbers of people employed in jobs that either make no positive contribution to the economy or that are based on actively working to destroy liberty, and the employment picture gets even bleaker.
And here are the next steps..
“We are Preparing for Massive Civil War,” Says DHS Informant
Red Dawn in the Chicago Spring
Catharsis and Crisis
All three above about the same message. Just choose your flavor...
Vox, is there still a review of Debunking Economics in the offing?
I no longer pay any attention to the headline unemployement rate
Whad'dya want, a dollar just because you finally figured it out? (Minus $0.10 for the misspelling)
A Facebook friend recently made this comment, "Illegal Aliens have always been a problem... Just ask a Indian..." to which I replied, and how are those Indians doing these days.
Putting aside the question of whether we should have open borders, and the moral rightness/wrongness of the government operated trail of tears, At some point you have to recognize that mass immigration will end your culture.
But there is certainly some growth in enterprising action.
Black man runs down and then beats black youth he claims stole his wallet.
Milton Friedman was quoted as saying you cannot have open borders and a welfare state. But too many people make too much money from cheap labor and they use some of that money electing politicians (er uh whores) who promise more of the same.
Ricardian free trade was supposed to replace merchantilism, and it did. What Ricardo did not anticipate was the wholesale movement of entire industries from a country, such as the USA, or that any goverment would permit such an exodus. But we have all seen that happen in my lifetime.
The combined effect of business shifting to Third World countries and the (apparent) open borders policies is going to bring this country to its knees. This has nothing to do with Keynesian economics, or monetary nonsense, or government spending out of control.....all of which are running full tilt, like the bilge pumps on the Titanic.
The question is not whether people wake up, it’s about how miserable they have to get before they do.
The misery is growing in leaps and bounds at the moment.
Anonymous..."You are wrong Vox. Apparently immigrants are now bringing TB to major cities. Think of all the extra healthcare jobs created. Not to mention all the welfare workers, crime counsellers and prison guards needed for immigrants. So many jobs soon we will be at 110% employment"
Just wait till we have to raise hundreds of new regiments to drive the bastards out at bayonet point. Everybody will have a job. Won't be hardly any people left for the private sector.
Agreed, the cooked data of the BLS or ADP is just a waste of paper.
I knew that John Titor was out there somewhere!!
Couldn't resist the reference...
I like to drive it home that most of the parodies, err, stories in American media are absurd diversions.
Of course, I'm not serious but if its not about jobs, I don't want to hear about it.
How is the labor farce faring? It is mix of doom, poverty and hilarity. Like a cosmic joke or a reflection of each job seeker as social security disability claims increase, retiring boomers are not replaced with younger workers and the ironic joy of one's alumni not hiring graduates for menial clerical work.
Noah:
"Consider too the increasingly large numbers of people employed in jobs that either make no positive contribution to the economy or that are based on actively working to destroy liberty, and the employment picture gets even bleaker."
I have never seen so many nonproductive employees or paper pushers in my entire 31 years. How Americans believe we are so productive, efficient and skilled is simply beyond me. Perhaps, it exists in pockets around the country. I just don't see the value or productivity in Facebook, Google along with the new tower of Babel in NSAUtah.
Vox, is there still a review of Debunking Economics in the offing?
Yes. But it will be a while.
Just read your latest WND article on this topic. I'm curious, what are the yearly ratios since 2006 using your preferred metric of employed/total population?
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